The 2011 outlook: ideas and agents

The 2011 outlook: ideas and agents

The discussion of China’s global rise, already a dominating topic for many years, will continue in 2011. The zeal and fear that surround the subject - rational or irrational, justified or unjustified - will intensify on both sides.

In this febrile atmosphere there are cool-headed and rational voices who especially deserve to be listened to. The notable thing is that they are often the ones most excoriated as dangerous extremists by China’s government. The Dalai Lama, who advocates a middle-way approach to solving the intractable Tibet dilemma, is one; Liu Xiaobo, who advocates and has practiced dialogue to advance democracy and human rights in China, is another. Both men’s emphasis on compromise and coexistence sets them apart from the ideological, do-or-die style favoured by some Chinese dissidents.

The day that Liu Xiaobo was (in his absence) awarded the Nobel peace prize, 10 December 2010, also marked the end of the fifteen-year jail term served by a Chinese Mongolian intellectual and prisoner of conscience called Hada. In the event Hada’s incarceration has been extended into 2011. Again, a voice of reason who (in this case) highlights China's ethnic tensions and disharmony is treated as an enemy of the state.

The very people who offer China an opening to the future are imprisoned or exiled. I hope that 2011 will see Chinese authorities learning to develop more enlightened attitudes to such dissenting voices, as well as becoming more responsive to public opinion and grievance. If they do not, the distrust and fear in much of the world in the face of China’s growing power and influence will only increase.